Analysis and Synthesis: Current Affairs and Presidential Legacies

An early ambition was that I might enter politics or academia, or become a diplomat/lawyer/corporate executive with an international career. But my perspective has always been one of multiplicity: it felt more natural to me to see the interrelatedness of humanity than to become an expert specializing in a fragment of the universe. I wanted a personal life and the freedom of my own thoughts and ideas.

Formally, my education includes studies in literature and the liberal arts, aesthetics, theory, production and performance of art and visual works; cultural analysis, expressive arts and symbolism, identity, social groups and institutions, power and politics, law; historical and intellectual analysis, cognitive psychology and behavioral analysis, sociology; management, organizational behavior, micro-and macro-economics, statistics; earth science; communications, print journalism, foreign reporting, interactive multimedia, and electronic news production.

Despite my reputation for scholarship, leadership, and organizational abilities, I viewed myself as an artist. But not just any kind of artist: I work with what is intangible, non-verbalized, and emergent. My purpose is to see and to experience the future before it manifests, to reveal the soul, to create what has not been seen before, and still to make a difference in the world. There is no conventional training for this unique vocation, so I set out to collect the memories and the portfolio of life and work experiences that would enable me to fulfill my destiny. You cannot consider yourself to be a true artist unless you have experienced complete joy and serenity, catharsis, intense feelings, bittersweet memories, and sorrow—the awakening of the kundalini life force.

Given this filter, here is my analysis of the current state of affairs:

I like Barack Obama and sense that he is a person of destiny. The present conservative agenda, which first gained a stronghold during the ascent of Reaganomics, is now a thing of the past. It is about time that the shrill and divisive practitioners of media yip-yap will soon be subordinated—along with outmoded management styles and corporate/consumer excesses.

The nature of American society and corporatism tends to mirror the personality and policies of the commander-in-chief. In Reagan we had a man in his dotage; in Bush I a wealthy elitist who was seriously out-of-touch with how common people lived; in Clinton and Bush II, there was slippage into adolescent behavior. But Obama is something else—a consistently virtuous, mature, sober, and responsible adult. The smart way his presidential campaign was run is a sign of what is to come. What the mantra, “It’s the economy, stupid.” was to the Clinton administration, “good judgment” will be to the Obama administration.

The four C’s—communication, connection, creativity, and collaboration—will rule. Obama brings style and substance, the likes of which the world stage has not seen before. Look for equality, compassion, innovation, ethics, service, and discipline to be the imprints of an Obama administration. Barack Obama ran for president because he wanted to make a difference, to change the world, and as an internal challenge to himself. An only child from a single-parent household with an absent father, there is incredible personal loneliness given this status. From the time he was a child, Obama had to create his own place and make his own way in the world: he had nothing to lose and everything to gain. Obama’s internal motivation was to create something of stability and substance, and to challenge society’s assumptions.

Obama has just over 60 days before he is sworn in as president of the United States. He has collected a coterie of like-minded individuals into his orbit, and he and his team plan to hit the ground running. I respect the fact that Obama will not allow himself to be rushed into doing anything ill considered or unseemly. He will wait until the present administration is out of office before he reveals his true plans. I do not feel Obama will attempt too much at once. To do so would be foolhardy. First, the economy must be placed under control. It was pointless to hand over $700 billion in taxpayer funds without strings attached, so you can expect an Obama administration to address this loophole. The United States did not have a true free market economy in the first place; the system was weighted in favor of the plutocracy. What we will probably see in the future is a hybrid version of free market enterprise and socialism. The bailouts already amount to a form of corporate socialism. As well, you can expect a foreign government to try to take advantage of Obama early in his administration; he will be tested on the international front sooner rather than later. Also, the government must do all it can to keep President Obama and the first family safe.

When the timing is right, President Obama will begin to unfold his administration’s initiatives. If all goes well, Obama’s administration can expect to be in power for eight years; American voters are inclined to give a new president two terms in office. If the country is prosperous, another Democrat will succeed him. As I mentioned earlier in the year, I don’t sense that Hillary will ever become president. She had a chance to become vice-president in 2008, but she and former President Clinton held onto their sense of entitlement too long and had not built a bridge to Obama’s inner circle. And do not discount any lingering feelings of rivalry. Rarely does rivalry fully dissipate, and feelings of rivalry are constructive only when sublimated. Interestingly, Obama and Hillary are very similar in one startling way. They are both strongly motivated by a mission of purpose and public service in their lives: they differ in that Obama is innately collaborative while Hillary has been controlling. That her core staff uses the term “Hillaryland” as a form of self-designation reinforced the impression of imperialist tendencies.

Hillary completely redeemed herself during the general election and has the political capital to become the nominee in 2012, but this would be a denouement. Like John McCain, in four years her time will have passed. I see her more in the mold of a Ted Kennedy. Like Kennedy, whose own presidential ambitions were thwarted, over time, Hillary will follow his lead as an elder stateswoman and national power broker. In the future, Hillary could still become a vice-presidential candidate to balance a ticket, if the position were handed to her on a silver platter. Obama is a tough act to follow. Do not expect another black/bi-racial/minority president to follow in Obama’s footsteps in the foreseeable future. A female or ethnic minority as vice-president would be a likelier scenario: the glass ceiling has been shattered.

While Hillary, John Kerry, and Bill Richardson may all be interested in becoming Secretary of State, there is a pecking order. There are always political debts to be paid with a successful campaign and, in this respect, Obama is no exception. Kerry might have the backing of the Kennedys, but Hillary has more clout. Hillary helped deliver her constituency of women and blue-collar votes during the general election; Kennedy and Kerry combined did not have the traction to deliver Massachusetts to Obama during the Democratic primary. Hillary’s influence and stature will continue to grow. Once Ted Kennedy passes, so too will the vested power and authority of the clan. Right now, there is no one in the generational pipeline with the larger-than-life ambitions of their predecessors. Caroline and her late brother John were raised as Bouviers by their mother, not as Kennedys…they always wanted a private life. Kerry’s visibility at this time is due in large part to his his wife’s inherited wealth; the nation had already rejected him as a presidential candidate. Richardson is a prominent link to the Hispanic constituency, and his loyalty has already been severely tested. The Clintons gave Richardson a national profile and career, but he gave his endorsement to Obama. Theirs is a multicultural bond and, in the future, viable political candidates will want to emphasize a multicultural or bi-racial connection to appeal to the increasingly influential Millennial generation.

Historically, Hillary has carved an independent identity from her husband, the former president. Bill Clinton scored record-high approval ratings and the economy soared under his administration. For years, this was enough to stave off concerns about Clinton’s ethical lapses and the sexual misconduct allegations. Al Gore would have become president if not for the Lewinsky sex scandal and subsequent impeachment proceedings against the president, so it is fair to say that Bill Clinton lost the White House for the Democrats. The combination of inappropriate sexual conduct and impeachment was a national distraction that ushered in the current, failed presidency.

Sarah Palin’s moment has passed. The media leaks about outlandish behavior occurred because Republican stalwarts wanted to discredit any claim she has to an important role or stature in the Republican Party. Palin is trying to prolong her news cycle because she wants a viable career, but she is woefully not ready for prime time. As a voter and taxpayer, I am highly offended that the Republican Party tried to sell her to the American people while Republicans kept harping on Obama’s inexperience to become president. Her selection completely torpedoed that argument. To be fair, I felt the complaints about Palin’s new $150,000 wardrobe were largely irrelevant. Virtually every female network and major market news anchor receives a clothing allowance if she appears on prime time, and a Republican donor or a discretionary budget could have provided the funds. However, what is hypocritical is holding Palin up as a Walmart mom after her wardrobe makeover. You would not find any of the designer fashions from Neiman Marcus at a Walmart. I do not see Palin as a political power player on the national stage; she may instead find herself relegated to Ollie North territory.

Prior to Super Tuesday, I suggested Mitt Romney for the Republican ticket. In the general election, the popular vote differential was 6% and there were five battleground states. Romney has credibility as an executive and for his economic expertise. Wall Street likes Romney, and so does Middle America. It was inane to tap Palin because of concerns about energizing the conservative base. To whom would the fundamentalists and conservatives turn? In a general election, between Obama/Biden and McCain/Romney, passions would have run high and the base would have shown up at the polls.

Romney spent millions of his own money to buy entry into national politics. He is deceptively smart, ambitious, and strategic; if he wants it enough, he will be the Republican nominee in 2012. Romney has a joint J.D./M.B.A. from Harvard Law School and Harvard Business School; in addition, he was a Baker Scholar in the top 5% of his HBS class. He was CEO of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, which he used as his political springboard to become the Republican candidate for Ted Kennedy’s U.S. Senate seat in 1994. Taking on the patriarch of the Kennedy clan gave Romney immediate standing and visibility. Romney won his bid to become governor of Massachusetts in 2002. In 2007, when his first and only term as governor ended, Romney ran for president and collected political capital as an effective surrogate for John McCain during the 2008 general election.

With Romney on the Republican ticket instead of Palin, Obama still might have eked out a victory. Fortunately, McCain was desperate enough to want to win that he placed his trust in the wrong people and resorted to contrivance. This blatantly political gesture was enough to seal the outcome.

While waiting outside the door of my niece’s classroom at St. Mary’s parochial school, I viewed the pictorial line of U.S. presidents extending from George Washington to Barack Obama, the 44th office-holder. It occurred to me that what made many of these presidents so memorable were the historic events that took place during their tenure or the landmark legislation and seismic changes in society left as a legacy of their administrations. I felt a sense of pride in the accomplishments and resiliency of our republic through the passage of time and its leadership in world events under the stewardship of heads of state democratically elected by a heterogeneous populace. This to me is the essence of America.

George Washington (1789-1797) – the American Revolution, the Constitution, the birth of the nation

Thomas Jefferson (1801-09) – the Declaration of Independence, the Louisiana Purchase

Abraham Lincoln (1861-65) – the Civil War, the Emancipation Proclamation, the abolition of slavery

Theodore Roosevelt (1901-09) – the Sherman Antitrust Act, the Panama Canal, the conservation movement

Woodrow Wilson (1913-21) – World War I, the League of Nations, the Treaty of Versailles, creation of the Federal Trade Commission, the Federal Reserve System, and a federal income tax; I attended Woodrow Wilson Elementary School

Herbert Hoover (1929-33) – the Great Depression, Works Progress Administration, Civilian Conservation Corps, prohibition

Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-45) – the Great Depression, the New Deal, Social Security, Pearl Harbor, World War II, the Good Neighbor Policy, the United Nations, the Yalta Conference, creation of the Securities Exchange Commission and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Tennessee Valley Authority, Japanese internment camps

Harry Truman (1945-53) – the Fair Deal program, the United Nations, the U.N. General Assembly, World War II, the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Truman Doctrine, the Marshall Plan, the Potsdam Conference, the Berlin Airlift, the Cold War, NATO, the National Security Act, the creation of the Central Intelligence Agency and the national Security Council, the Korean War, the Republic of China (Taiwan), McCarthyism

Dwight Eisenhower (1953-61) – the Cold War, the Korean De-Militarized Zone, the interstate highway system, nuclear weapons, the Eisenhower Doctrine, creation of HEW, Brown v. Board of Education

John F. Kennedy (1961-63) – the youngest president elected to office, the first and only Roman Catholic president, first televised presidential debates, 1,000 days in office, Pulitzer Prize winner in history, the New Frontier, civil rights, the modern feminist movement, the Vietnam War, the Peace Corps, the Space Race, the Arms Race, the Bay of Pigs Invasion, the Cuban Missile Crises, the Berlin Wall, the Immigration and Nationality Act

Lyndon Johnson (1963-69) – the Vietnam War, the Great Society, the Civil Rights Act, Medicare, Medicaid, the Voting Rights Act, the “War on Poverty,” appointment of Thurgood Marshall, the first African-American to serve on the Supreme Court, urban renewal and beautification programs, creation of the National Endowment for the Arts and the National Endowment for the Humanities, the Public Broadcasting Act, the Higher Education Act, the Bilingual Education Act, urban mass transportation, fair housing, the Gun Control Act, won presidency with 61% of vote and widest popular vote margin in history

Richard Nixon (1969-74) – end of the Vietnam War, the Watergate scandal, the first man on the moon, rapprochement with the People’s Republic of China, détente with the Soviet Union, SALT talks, creation of EPA, DEA, OSHA, Skylab, federal affirmative action plan

Jimmy Carter (1977-81) – Iran hostage crises, energy crises, stagflation, Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, Arab-Israeli peace treaty, Camp David Accords, return of the Panama Canal Zone to Panama, SALT, creation of Department of Energy and Department of Education, airline and communications industry deregulation, civil service reform, record number of minority appointees, human rights, gay rights, Voyager 1, amnesty for Vietnam War draft evaders, 1980 Moscow Olympics boycott

Ronald Reagan (1981-89) – Reaganomics, deregulation and income tax overhaul, peacetime prosperity, end of the Cold War, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty with Mikhail Gorbachev, the Iran-Contra affair, the bombing of Libya, the invasion of Grenada, “Star Wars” Strategic Defense Initiative, the War on Drugs, “Just Say No” anti-drug advertising campaign, the Challenger disaster, the Immigration Reform and Control Act, the oldest president in office

George H.W. Bush (1989-93) – the Persian Gulf War, Operation Desert Storm, the end of the Cold War, the collapse of Communism and the dissolution of the U.S.S.R., the fall of the Berlin Wall, the U.S. invasion of Panama, high deficit spending, “No New Taxes” broken pledge, the Americans with Disabilities Act, the Clean Air Act, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the North American Free Trade Agreement

William J. Clinton (1993-2001) – the longest period of peace-time economic expansion in American history, record low unemployment and inflation, balanced budget and budget surplus, triangulation policy, North American Free Trade Agreement, United Nations peace keeping forces in Bosnia, Operation Desert Fox, the Battle of Mogadishu, the Oslo accords, welfare reform, Family and Medical leave Act, failure of health care reform, worldwide campaign against drug trafficking, highest rate of home ownership, children’s health insurance, "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" gays in the military policy, placing the White House and federal agencies on the internet, sexual misconduct allegations, the Lewinsky scandal, impeachment, the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, the Brady Bill, Travelgate, Whitewater, Troopergate

George W. Bush (2001-09) – 9-11 terrorist attacks, the worst financial crises since the Great Depression, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan, $700 billion bailout of U.S. financial system, the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, Hurricane Katrina, Operation Desert Shield, global financial crises, sub prime mortgage crises, federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the War on Terror, Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse, Guantanamo Bay detainment, the No Child Left Behind Act, illegal immigration, temporary guest-worker program, opposition to the Kyoto Protocol, global warming, stem cell research, Terrorist Surveillance Program, Hurricane Katrina, midterm dismissal of U.S. attorneys controversy, Plamegate, hanging chads, highest disapproval ratings in polling history; historians view this Bush presidency as a failure

Barack Obama (2009 - ) – first African-American/bi-racial/non-white president in American history, first president born outside of the continental United States, U.S. financial crises (TBD: signature, landmark legislation in race, financial reform, environment, homeland security, international affairs, energy, education, universal health care, ethics?)